AC Milan one final push for Champions League qualification against Cagliari

AC Milan go into the final day still needing to finish the job against Cagliari, and the squad news gives them a real lift. Rafael Leão, Alexis Saelemaekers and Pervis Estupiñán are all back after suspension, while Luka Modrić has made a rapid recovery from a serious facial injury and is pencilled in to start.

Milan are third on 70 points from 37 matches, so victory should keep them in the Champions League places regardless of the final-day scramble. Their last five league results are WLLDW, which is hardly the form line of a side sweeping through a run-in, but the return of Leão matters here because his 6.93 league rating across 27 Serie A appearances still marks him out as one of their better attacking outlets.

Why the returnees matter most

The biggest boost is not just numbers, it is the shape of the team. Leão coming back gives Milan pace and directness. Saelemaekers and Estupiñán widen the options too, and Modrić adds the kind of control that is useful in a one-game, high-pressure setup. There is still a small uncertainty around Modrić's status, though, because one report says he is in line to return to the starting line-up while another says he is pencilled in to start.

Christopher Nkunku also comes in with a useful detail attached to him. He has converted penalties in his last two matches, which gives Milan another player arriving with a bit of confidence if the game becomes tight.

Cagliari's record at San Siro is a major hurdle

The historical picture is ugly for Cagliari. Milan have won 18 of their last 21 top-flight home games against them, and Cagliari's last away win at Milan dates back to June 1997. On top of that, they have picked up just two points from six away fixtures since January.

There is still a live caveat around the very top of the table, because the brief also points to a runners-up scenario if Milan beat Cagliari and Napoli lose. Even so, the more important point is simpler: Milan have the stronger squad, the better home record in this fixture and enough returning quality to make this theirs to lose. If they handle the occasion, the Champions League place should be theirs by full time.