Argentina go into the 2026 World Cup picture as the team to beat after a University of Reading simulation put them first. The model ran every match of the 48-team tournament 10,000 times, which at least gives the early conversation some shape. Lionel Scaloni has also said Lionel Messi is going to play against Iceland, although his minutes will be managed.

How Messi changes the outlook

Scaloni was clear about the return. "He is going to play against Iceland. What I do not know is how many minutes," he said to goal.com. "I still have to talk to him during training and see how many minutes he plays to avoid any kind of risk, but in principle, yes, he will get minutes."

That is the sort of update Argentina wanted before a World Cup campaign. Scaloni also described Messi as "hugely important, as always," adding that his impact goes beyond the dressing room because of the atmosphere he creates around him. That matters here because the simulation puts Argentina first, and the captain is arriving as part of the plan rather than as a doubt.

The chasing pack is tightly bunched

The bigger reason this simulation is interesting is the congestion behind Argentina. James Reade said "France and Spain are virtually indistinguishable in the model, and England aren't far behind either." France and Spain are separated by very little, and England are close enough to keep the title race compressed.

Reade also highlighted Portugal as one of the strongest attacking sides in the whole field. That is the most obvious reason to take them seriously as more than a name on the list, even if the overall outlook is still a model-based forecast rather than a certainty.

Brazil sit in a slightly different lane. Sky Sports framed them as a dark horse, with Callum Bishop writing that this generation still has "a story to write" and that under Ancelotti, "a prosaic narrative with a touch of Samba may just suffice." That is fair enough. Brazil have enough quality to bother anyone, but the simulation does not put them above Argentina.

The clean takeaway is that Argentina are the favourite, Messi is expected back against Iceland, and the field behind them is crowded rather than clear-cut. If the model holds any water, the first real title-test will not be about whether Argentina belong at the top. It will be whether anyone in the chasing pack can pull away before the tournament starts.

FAQ

Are Argentina the favourites to win the 2026 World Cup?

Yes. A University of Reading simulation puts Argentina top of the 48-team field. The model ran every match 10,000 times, and James Reade said Argentina come out on top while the race behind them is very tight.

Will Lionel Messi play against Iceland before the World Cup?

Lionel Scaloni said Messi is going to play against Iceland, but his minutes will be managed. He also said Messi is hugely important, not just in the dressing room but through the atmosphere he creates around him.

How close are France and Spain to Argentina in the World Cup model?

The chasing pack is close. James Reade said France and Spain are virtually indistinguishable in the model, with England not far behind. Portugal also stand out because the simulation gave them one of the strongest attacking ratings in the field.

Compiled by the ClutchBrief Desk with AI assistance, cross-checked against 3 outlets. How we work →