Arsenal start the new Premier League season as the clear pick to defend their title. Twenty-five of 28 BBC pundits, 89%, back them to go again, and no one in that group has them finishing below second. Last season’s 85-point haul and seven-point margin over Manchester City are doing a lot of work in that consensus.

Arsenal's case is built on continuity

Theo Walcott’s view was simple: “They have got the biggest advantage of all - continuity. Mikel Arteta is still there, they are coming off an 85-point title-winning season and they have strengthened rather than rebuilt. The Bruno Guimaraes signing is massive.”

That lines up with the broader tone around Arsenal. Danny Murphy said, “I can't look past Arsenal as champions,” pointing to the momentum from last season’s title and the consistency of having the same manager and same players. Nedum Onuoha added that the team have not only spent pre-season preparing, they have spent the past five or six years building.

The latest signal came in the Community Shield, where Arsenal beat Manchester City 3-0. It is only one match, but it reinforced the same idea people keep coming back to: Arsenal look settled, while the others are still sorting themselves out.

The chase pack is still being judged on uncertainty

The alternative picks are coming from a messier field. Matt Verri wrote that with Manchester City, Liverpool and others in transition, Arsenal are well placed to kick on and defend their title. Sam Tabuteau made the same point more directly, saying that in a season with so much uncertainty around the traditional top six, Arsenal have the upper hand.

John Nicholson’s Manchester United shout is the outlier here. He backed United by saying they were the best team in the league under Carrick, but that remains a lone view rather than a mainstream one.

On the BBC side, the floor for Arsenal is unusually high. All 28 predictors had them finishing no lower than second, which tells you this is not just a narrow favourite’s case. It is a near-universal belief that the champions have the strongest base, the best continuity and the cleanest path to another title.

The one complication is whether that still holds once the season starts and the chasing pack settles. Right now, the market, the pundits and the early-season evidence are all pointing the same way, and Arsenal are the side everyone else is trying to catch.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 3 outlets. How we work →