Cagliari go into the final two rounds needing one point to be mathematically sure of their top-flight status. They are on 37 points from 36 matches, and the margin is simple enough now. Below them, Lecce and Cremonese are divided by just one point, which is where the real pressure sits in this relegation round preview.

Why Cagliari are close but not there yet

The numbers explain why Cagliari can finish the job quickly, but also why nobody should treat it as done already. Their 37 points leave them one point short of mathematical safety, and their -15 goal difference underlines how thin the cushion still is. A point is all they need, not a rescue act, and that is a useful distinction.

The other relevant part of the table is less comfortable for Lecce. They have 32 points from 36 matches, so they are still in the middle of the survival fight rather than just passing through it. Torino, Udinese and Sassuolo are in the round of fixtures, but the direct battle described in this preview is narrower than that.

Lecce, Cremonese and the narrowest part of the race

Lecce also arrive with a specific warning sign attached to them. They need to get back on track after a 1-0 defeat to Juventus, and their last five league results are LWDDL, so the recent form has not been clean enough to settle anything.

Cremonese have dragged themselves back into the picture the hard way. Their 3-0 victory over Pisa put them back in the running, and the result matters because they are on 32 points as well, only one behind Lecce. Zé Pedro is part of the wider club list for the fixture set, but the table maths is what drives the story here.

The basic read is hard to escape. Cagliari can remove themselves from the equation with one point, while Lecce and Cremonese still have to sort out a one-point gap between them before either side can breathe properly. If Cagliari get what they need, the attention shifts straight back to the pair below them and their last two rounds.

Written by Daniel Hartley with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 1 outlet. How we work →