“I've seen Argentina numerous times at this tournament and, compared to their teams of the past, this is not an outstanding Argentina side,” Chris Sutton wrote for BBC Sport. His preview for Spain against Argentina is blunt from the start, but not lazy. He still praises Argentina’s fight and aggression. He just thinks Spain have been the better side across the tournament and goes into Spain vs Argentina backing them strongly.

Spain's tournament control

Sutton’s strongest point is the cleanest one: Spain have not been behind in any of their seven games at this tournament. For a final preview, that is a serious piece of evidence rather than a throwaway stat. Spain have also won their last five matches, so this is not just about surviving difficult moments, it is about controlling games from start to finish.

He put it plainly on BBC Sport: “I still fancy Spain strongly to beat them, however. They have not been behind in any of their seven games at this tournament so far and if you look at the way they beat France in their semi-final, they absolutely dismantled them.”

That semi-final sits at the centre of his argument. Sutton described Spain’s performance against France as near-perfect, and the word fits the rest of his logic too. He is not picking them on romance, reputation or one star turn. He is picking them because they have looked settled, organised and consistently in control.

There is a personnel angle as well. Sutton highlighted Rodri, saying: “Pedro Porro looks unrecognisable to the player we see for Tottenham, while Rodri looks like he is back to his physical best after the anterior cruciate ligament injury that kept him out for most of the 2024-25 season.” A fully functioning Rodri changes the tone of any big game, especially one expected to be tight.

Argentina's edge, and Spain's advantage

Sutton is careful not to dismiss Argentina as soft finalists. Quite the opposite. His point is that they are dangerous for reasons different from Spain’s.

“I've seen Argentina numerous times at this tournament and, compared to their teams of the past, this is not an outstanding Argentina side. Still, you have to admire their fight and their aggression. They fight like no other team to stay in games and win any way they can,” he said.

That is a fair read of the matchup. Argentina also arrive on five straight wins, so Sutton is not dealing with a side stumbling into the final. He simply rates Spain’s overall level more highly. That is an opinion, not a settled fact, but it is well supported by the way Spain have managed games throughout the tournament.

He also expects a very specific kind of final from Argentina. Sutton’s view is that they will likely defend deep, protect their box and choose their moments to attack. That would put even more pressure on Spain’s patience in possession, and it also explains why he keeps returning to their control rather than just their attacking talent.

For all the focus on Lionel Messi, Sutton’s case is really about the collective. Spain’s midfield structure, their calm after scoring and their refusal to spend long spells under pressure have set them apart. His take on Argentina is harsher than many previews, but not ridiculous. A team can be fierce, streetwise and hard to beat without being one of the great versions of Argentina.

The shape of Sutton's call

Sutton’s prediction is still just that, a prediction. He is not calling Argentina a weak side, and he is not pretending finals follow form charts perfectly. He saw enough in Argentina’s semi-final win over England to criticise Thomas Tuchel, which also tells you he thinks margins in these games stay fine.

He has landed 65 correct picks from 102 completed games in BBC Sport’s predictor table, compared with AI’s 66 and the users’ 72. That does not make his call right or wrong, but it does put his confidence in context.

The stronger part of his case remains Spain themselves: seven games without trailing, five straight wins, and a semi-final against France that he thought they absolutely dismantled. Sutton has made his position clear before kickoff on 19 July. He sees Spain as favourites, and the argument rests more on their control than on any weakness in Argentina.

FAQ

Why is Chris Sutton backing Spain to beat Argentina in the World Cup final?

Chris Sutton's view is that Spain have been the better team across the tournament. He points to the fact they have not been behind in any of their seven games and says their semi-final display against France showed their level. He also argues Argentina have fight and aggression, but are not an outstanding side compared with some of their past teams.

Are Argentina underdogs against Spain in the World Cup final?

In Sutton's preview, yes. He says he fancies Spain strongly and sees them as favourites because of their control through the tournament. Argentina arrive on a five-win run too, so this is not a case of poor form, but Sutton still rates Spain's overall level higher heading into the final.

How have Spain performed in the tournament before facing Argentina?

Spain have not been behind in any of their seven games at the tournament, which is the main stat Sutton leans on. They also come into the final with five straight wins. Sutton was especially impressed by the semi-final, saying Spain absolutely dismantled France.

What did Chris Sutton say about Argentina before the final?

Sutton said this is not an outstanding Argentina side compared with some of their teams of the past. He still praised their fight and aggression, saying they stay in games and win any way they can. His point is not that Argentina are weak, but that Spain have looked more convincing over the full tournament.

Written by Daniel Hartley with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 10 outlets. How we work →