England topped Group L with seven points from three matches, but the real story is the bracket in front of them. Opta says their projected route to the final, if they keep winning, would run through Congo DR, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Spain. On that read, it is the most difficult path since records began.
England's projected knockout route
The first hurdle is Congo DR, who finished third in Group K with four points from three games. They drew with Portugal, lost to Colombia and beat Uzbekistan, which is enough to stop anyone treating the opener as a soft landing. DR Congo are also in the knockout stages for the first time, so the game carries a different kind of pressure than a routine group-stage tie.
If England get through that, the route gets much harsher. The projected sequence then goes Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Spain, with Brazil standing out as the first real heavyweight in the run. Opta's ranking is the part that will grab most attention, but the actual bracket is even more striking because the opponents stack up one after another.
The Mexico tie that changes the tone
Mexico is the possible last-16 step that can make this path feel uncomfortable quickly. Their clash with England is scheduled for 6 July at 01:00 BST, which is 1am Monday morning in the UK, and it would come at the Azteca Stadium, more than 2,200 metres above sea level.
Mexico also arrive on a four-match unbeaten run with four straight clean sheets, so the setting is not the only problem. Adam Cook told BBC Sport, "Pubs are at the heart of the community, football is a community event, it is terrible" when talking about the early kick-off, and he added, "We count on these sales to help us for the rest of the year." The fan frustration is obvious, but so is the football risk for England.
Thomas Tuchel's side have already done the part they could control, getting through the group stage unbeaten. What they cannot control now is the shape of the bracket, and if the route holds, England will need to beat their way through a sequence that starts with Congo DR and can still end with Spain.
FAQ
Is England's World Cup route really the hardest on record?
Opta says the projected route would be the most difficult since records began. England topped Group L with seven points, and if they keep winning the path runs through DR Congo, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Spain.
Who could England play on the way to the World Cup final?
England's projected route is DR Congo first, then Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and Spain if they keep winning. The final four opponents are only projected, so each step depends on results going their way.
Why is Mexico a difficult possible opponent for England?
Mexico's potential last-16 tie is complicated by the Azteca Stadium, which sits more than 2,200 metres above sea level. They are also on a four-match unbeaten run with four straight clean sheets.
Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 4 outlets. How we work →
