SC Freiburg have the cleaner league record, the stronger recent form and the deeper squad profile going into the tie at Fortuna Düsseldorf. That makes them the obvious favourites for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Freiburg on 23 August. Fortuna's cup record and their recent meetings with Freiburg keep the underdog case alive, though, and this is not the sort of draw you can dismiss on league status alone.

Freiburg's edge in open play

The simplest argument for Freiburg starts with last season. They finished seventh in the 2025-26 Bundesliga and collected 47 points, which is a long way clear of a 3. Liga side still trying to find rhythm at the start of its league campaign.

Form points the same way. Freiburg's recent run is four wins in five, while Fortuna have lost both of their opening league fixtures after a 2-0 defeat to Hoffenheim II on 15 August. That kind of gap usually shows up quickly in cup ties, especially when the higher-level side can keep the game on its own terms.

Sports Mole's preview leaned the same way, saying Freiburg "will be expected to win" even if changes make the starting XI take time to settle. It also noted that Fortuna may find some joy against what it called Freiburg's makeshift opponents, but still backed the visitors to go through.

Fortuna's cup record and recent meetings

Fortuna are not an ordinary lower-league opponent. They are two-time winners of the DFB-Pokal, with their last trophy coming in 1979-80, and they have failed to advance past the second round in 9 of their past 13 entries. That is a mixed record, but the cup history is real, and it is part of why this draw feels more awkward than a routine mismatch.

The head-to-head record adds another layer. Freiburg beat Fortuna 3-1 in the second round in October 2025, yet Fortuna have won three of the last six meetings between the clubs. That is enough to stop this from becoming a pure favourite-versus-minnow story.

Freiburg should still be the side controlling territory, chances and tempo. Fortuna's best route is probably to make the game scrappy early and hope the cup pedigree shows up in moments rather than through long spells of control. On paper, the gap is clear. At the Merkur Spiel-Arena on 23 August, the tie still has enough history behind it to be awkward.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 1 outlet. How we work →