Juventus vs Fiorentina preview: defence and Vlahović point to the home side

Juventus go into their final home game with third place in Serie A and only one point separating them from AC Milan and Roma. They also have the best defensive stretch in Europe’s top five leagues over the last nine matchdays, with seven clean sheets and just two goals conceded in that run. Dušan Vlahović has added a timely lift too, scoring the winner against Lecce after only 12 seconds last week and then netting again in back-to-back league matches.

Why Juventus look set up for a low-scoring win

That profile makes Juventus hard to argue against at home, especially with Luciano Spalletti saying they are at “a vital stage in the fight to reach Europe's top competition” and that they “hold their destiny within their own hands.” The home record against Fiorentina helps as well, with only one defeat in the last 17 meetings in Turin. Vlahović is not carrying a huge seasonal total, with five Serie A goals in 17 appearances, but he is arriving in the right patch of form.

Juventus have not secured Champions League qualification yet, and that matters. They can seal a top-four finish by winning their two remaining fixtures, so this is still a proper pressure game rather than a dead rubber.

Why Fiorentina's attack looks short on ideas

Fiorentina have already done enough to stay up, but their recent attacking numbers are thin. They have scored only one goal in their last four games, which is not the kind of output that usually travels well to a team with Juventus's defensive numbers.

There is a bit more nuance to their season than that alone. Fiorentina have collected 25 points in the second half of the campaign, 12 more than in the first half, the biggest increase in Serie A. Paolo Vanoli has also overseen a rescue job after the club were stuck in the drop zone on his arrival, and he is still expected to depart, so he will want a strong finish. Even so, the form line that matters most here is the one from the last four matches, and it is not encouraging.

The cleanest read is that Juventus should have too much control at both ends. Fiorentina have already stabilised their season, but the attack has gone quiet, while Juventus are defending at a level that makes one goal look enough.