Manchester United have won the most points in the Premier League since Michael Carrick took over in January, so the case for giving him the job permanently is easy to see. The BBC's data-led analysis says the numbers behind that run are less convincing. United have scored seven more goals than a team historically would from the chances they have created, and that is doing a lot of the work behind the recent surge.
Why the results look better than the process
The warning sign is not just in the goals. United are taking two fewer shots per game and conceding slightly more than they did under Amorim, while their +15 goal difference is strong but not elite. That is a decent team profile, not one that screams control.
Set-piece and finishing variance are also playing a big part. Three of the six most clinical finishers in the Premier League since mid-January play for Manchester United, which helps explain why the attack has looked so sharp in the short term. Matheus Cunha is one of them, with 11 league goals, and the team have still produced only a limited sample of 10 league matches under Carrick.
The BBC's strongest warning comes at the other end. Senne Lammens has prevented 2.8 more goals than expected since Carrick took charge, which is useful and real, but not a foundation you bank a long-term appointment on. The same analysis says the current run is unlikely to continue in the long run, and that is hard to ignore when the gains are being driven by overperformance in both boxes.
The broader picture is straightforward enough. Manchester United are third in the Premier League with 64 points from 35 matches, and they have scored 63 league goals while conceding 48. Those are good numbers, but not the numbers of a side that has clearly settled the question of who should manage them next.
Michael Carrick has given United a better run of results, and that matters. The BBC's argument is that the run has been built on finishing and shot-stopping that are unlikely to keep landing at the same rate, which is why the permanent-job debate should stay open for now.
Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 1 outlet. How we work →
