AS Roma go into the Derby della Capitale with Donyell Malen doing the heavy lifting. He has scored 13 times in 16 Serie A appearances since arriving midway through the season, and that kind of return gives Roma a direct edge before a ball is kicked. Lazio, by contrast, have failed to score in 16 league matches this season, their worst such record since 1989.

Why Malen changes the derby picture

Roma do not need to turn this into a grand tactical story. They just need the simplest part of it to keep working, and Malen has been the sharpest finisher in the side since he arrived. His output has been quick, not gradual, and it is the main reason this preview feels tilted toward Roma rather than balanced between two rivals.

Lazio's situation is far less stable. They lost 3-0 to Inter in Serie A and then lost 2-0 to Inter in the Coppa Italia final days later. When a team is already blanking in league games this often, a pair of defeats like that tends to leave even less margin for a derby response.

Roma's stronger recent edge

The league table also keeps the pressure on Roma. They sit fifth in Serie A with 67 points from 36 matches, three points behind Napoli and one behind Juventus. They are still chasing a top-four finish, so the derby matters for more than local bragging rights.

Roma's recent record in this fixture is another reason they can feel more confident. The Giallorossi have won three of the last four meetings with Lazio across all competitions, as many wins as they had produced from the previous 13, while conceding just one goal in the process. That is a sharp enough shift to matter, and it gives Roma a decent case to approach this game as the side with more reasons to expect control.

AS Roma are not safe, and Lazio are not out of the picture by the time the whistle goes. But with Malen in this sort of form and Lazio carrying a 16-match league scoring drought, the early lean is obvious. Roma still have to do the work, but this is a derby they should expect to win rather than survive.

Written by Daniel Hartley with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 3 outlets. How we work →