Tottenham go into the final two league games with the better hand in the relegation race. They are 17th with 37 points from 35 games and a goal difference of -9, while West Ham are 18th with 36 points from 36 games and a goal difference of -20. That gap is small on points, but it is not small on the table.

Why Tottenham still control the race

Tottenham also have the cleaner run-in. They go away to Chelsea on 19 May, then finish at home to Everton on 24 May. West Ham have to go to Newcastle on 17 May before hosting Leeds on 24 May, and that first trip is the one that can decide whether the pressure keeps building.

Roberto de Zerbi’s message was simple enough: “If we want to win, we have to reduce the mistakes.” That fits the picture here. Tottenham do not need a perfect finish, just enough control to avoid handing the chase back.

Their recent form has been steadier too, with D, W, W, D, L in the last five league matches. West Ham’s run is L, L, W, D, W, which is a reminder that they are still in this, but also why they cannot assume the table will bend their way.

What West Ham need to flip it

Nuno Espirito Santo did not dress it up. “It's going to be tough [to stay up] - we know it is not in our hands,” he said. He added: “We will fight for it and we will keep on fighting.” That is the right tone for a side that probably needs help from elsewhere as well as its own result at Newcastle.

West Ham did beat Newcastle 3-1 at home in the league in November, so there is at least one result they can point to. But the numbers still lean heavily towards Tottenham: one point ahead, a much better goal difference, and fixtures that can settle the fight before the final day if they do the job.

The contested part is obvious. Whether Tottenham can be mathematically safe before the final day depends on what they do at Chelsea and what West Ham do at Newcastle. Spurs are still the favourites to finish the job from here, but West Ham have not been cut out of the race yet.

If Tottenham get the result they need and West Ham slip in midweek, the final day becomes much less important. If West Ham win at Newcastle, the whole thing tightens again fast.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 3 outlets. How we work →