Arsenal title permutations: City face Bournemouth with the race on the line

Arsenal are one result away from the Premier League title. They have 79 points from 36 matches, two ahead of Manchester City, and can be crowned tonight if City fail to beat Bournemouth.

Arsenal's charge has not been built on a single result. They are bidding to end their 22-year wait for the Premier League title, they have won five straight matches across league and Champions League games, and Kai Havertz's first-half header settled an unconvincing 1-0 victory over Burnley.

Why City have to win at Bournemouth

City go to Bournemouth knowing anything other than victory hands the title to Arsenal. That is the pressure point in the race. If City win, the title goes to the final day, with Arsenal away at Crystal Palace and City home to Aston Villa.

There is still a case for City dragging this out, but the equation is brutal. Arsenal are top, they have the points lead, and their goal difference of +42 matches City's margin, so this is being decided on points rather than tiebreaks. The league table has left City with one route only: win in Bournemouth, or watch Arsenal celebrate without kicking another ball.

Arsenal's wider season only sharpens the picture. They have also progressed past Atletico Madrid to reach their first Champions League final in 20 years, where they will face Paris Saint Germain in Budapest on Saturday 30 May. That does not win the league for them, but it does explain why this has turned into a proper run-in for Arsenal, not just a title check-in.