Arsenal head into the Paris Saint Germain final in Budapest with the strongest factual case in the brief: 8 wins from 8 in the Champions League, 24 points, 23 goals scored and only 4 conceded. That record matters because it changes the tone around them. This is not a team clinging to the occasion. It is a team with numbers, form and confidence that support the belief coming out of the squad.

Why Arsenal's European record has changed the mood

The biggest detail is the simplest one. Arsenal won all 8 of their Champions League games and finished top with 24 points, 23 goals for and 4 against.

That is a proper finalist's profile, not a lucky run. They have been convincing at both ends, and the attacking part is easy to miss if the discussion stays fixed on nerves and history. Arsenal scored 3 goals or more in 6 of their 8 league-phase games, which tells you this has not been built on one narrow route to victory.

A team that scores that freely and concedes that little has every right to think the final is there to be won. The brief's central point is belief, and the unbeaten run is the reason it feels grounded rather than fluffy.

Eberechi Eze has given that mood a clear voice. He told skysports.com: "We are just another group of people that have the opportunity to win the Champions League and I pray that we take it. When we do, it will be a special moment for sure."

That line fits the evidence. So does another from Eze, again via skysports.com: "You go through ups and downs and loads of noise in the media, but, at the end, all that matters is who won. And it doesn't matter how you won, it doesn't matter what you did to win."

There is a debate around whether Arsenal should be treated as underdogs or genuine favourites against PSG. Both sides have some support. PSG are the defending champions in this brief and they did recover from a modest league phase, finishing 11th with 14 points, two shy of the qualification spots. They also beat Liverpool 4-0 on aggregate and Bayern Munich 5-4 in the semi-final first leg, so there is no sensible way to dismiss them.

But Arsenal's case is stronger than any underdog framing suggests. Their European campaign has been cleaner, their numbers are better in the areas that matter most here, and their attack has been more consistently heavy. PSG scored 21 goals in the league phase. Arsenal scored 23 and conceded just 4 across the whole tournament. On the evidence in this brief, Arsenal should be seen as a legitimate favourite, even if not an overwhelming one.

Why Eze, Odegaard and Raya embody the confidence

If the mood around Arsenal needed faces, the brief gives three obvious ones: Eberechi Eze, Martin Ødegaard and David Raya.

Eze is the clearest emotional marker. He has already played 12 Champions League matches this season, so this is not just a player talking well before a big night. His confidence is coming from involvement, and that matters. The brief does not paint him as a one-game saviour. It presents him as one of the players who reflects how Arsenal now see themselves.

Ødegaard brings the calmer football logic. Teddy Sheringham told football.london: "If they need two players to step up in injury time as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and I did for Manchester United in 1999, I think it will be Eberechi Eze and Martin Odegaard to win it. They are two quality players that know how to finish."

That is still opinion rather than prediction, but it is not hard to see why Ødegaard is in the frame. He has 6 Premier League assists, and the brief also places him among the players most likely to shape the final if it tightens late.

Then there is Raya, whose story sharpens the human side of this run. He made his senior debut for Southport in September 2014, in a 3-0 defeat by Macclesfield. He will become only the third player to go from non-league football to a Champions League final, after Steve Finnan and Chris Smalling.

Paul Carden, Southport's assistant manager, told bbc.co.uk: "I don't think anybody could have predicted or scripted it. You wouldn't be 100% surprised, but you wouldn't have put a bet on him."

That path does not win finals on its own, obviously, but it does say something useful about this squad. Arsenal are not leaning on one type of story. They have elite-level output in Europe, a captain who can create, a forward speaking like a player who expects to finish the job, and a goalkeeper who took a very different route to this stage.

Why the 2006 final still hangs over this one

There is another layer to Arsenal's confidence, and it comes from the memory of the last time they were here. The 2006 final still sits in the background because it can be read in two ways.

One reading is simple heartbreak. Emmanuel Eboue's recollection keeps that alive: H. Lehmann was sent off after 18 minutes for bringing down E. Eto'o outside the box, S. Campbell still headed Arsenal in front in the 37th minute from Thierry Henry's free-kick, and then Eto'o and Juliano Belletti scored just 4 minutes apart with 10 minutes to play.

The other reading is that Arsenal were already good enough to win this competition and had the night ripped away from them by circumstance. Eboue told dailystar.co.uk: "Barcelona were scared about us. I think if Lehmann wasn't sent off, we win that game."

Both readings are fair enough. The heartbreak is real, but the more useful one now is the second. It supports the idea that this club should not treat a Champions League final as a novelty. That matters when the opponent is Paris Saint Germain, not because history wins matches, but because it can shape how a team carries itself before one.

This final still comes down to execution, and the brief does not support any certainty beyond that. PSG have enough quality to punish mistakes. Arsenal's unbeaten European run, Eze's confidence and the balance provided by players such as Ødegaard and Raya are why they go to Budapest looking like a side that expects to win rather than one hoping to cope.

FAQ

Will Arsenal go into the Champions League final as underdogs against PSG?

Some coverage frames Arsenal that way, but the numbers in this brief point to a side with a serious case to win outright. Arsenal arrive unbeaten in Europe with 8 wins from 8, 24 points, 23 goals scored and only 4 conceded. PSG are dangerous and have improved after the league phase, but Arsenal do not look like outsiders.

Why is there so much belief around Arsenal before the PSG final in Budapest?

The belief comes from more than mood. Arsenal won all 8 Champions League matches in the league phase, scored 23 goals, conceded 4 and hit 3 or more goals in 6 of those 8 games. Eberechi Eze has also spoken openly about being in the final to win it, which fits the confidence around the squad.

How important are Eberechi Eze, Martin Odegaard and David Raya to Arsenal's final chances?

They are central to the story in this brief. Eze has played 12 Champions League matches and has become one of the clearest voices for Arsenal's confidence. Odegaard's creative quality is backed by 6 Premier League assists, while Raya brings a strong personal story and arrives after a route from Southport that few elite finalists can match.

Does Arsenal's 2006 Champions League final still matter before this PSG game?

Yes, but more as background than burden. Emmanuel Eboue's recollection keeps that night alive, especially the sending-off for Jens Lehmann after 18 minutes, Sol Campbell's goal in the 37th minute, and the late swing when Eto'o and Juliano Belletti scored 4 minutes apart with 10 minutes left. It still shapes the emotion around Arsenal's return to this stage.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 14 outlets. How we work →