Bayern München are the Opta supercomputer's projected league-phase leaders on 16.56 points, with Arsenal second on 16.33 and only 0.23 points between them. Manchester City are third on 15.15, Liverpool fourth on 14.37, Barcelona fifth on 14.36 and Real Madrid sixth on 14.12. It is a tight spread at the top, and one that keeps a few of Europe's biggest clubs in the same conversation.
Bayern and the chasing pack
Bayern's projection is the headline number. 16.56 points puts them first in the model, but the gap to Arsenal is small enough to leave room for a swing either way over the league phase.
City and Liverpool sit close enough behind to matter as well. City on 15.15 are still within range of the top two, while Liverpool's 14.37 keeps them firmly in the group that the model expects to challenge near the top of the table. Barcelona and Real Madrid are not far back either, which makes the projected order feel more compressed than dominant.
PSG's lower projection
Paris Saint Germain are the real eye-catching outlier. The model has the defending champions seventh on 13.81 points despite their status as the two-time reigning winners, and that is a notable drop from the top of the forecast.
Last season they finished 11th in the league phase, so seventh is an improvement, but not a comfortable one. The projection still leaves them outside the top six that sit above them here, with Bayern, Arsenal, City, Liverpool, Barcelona and Real Madrid all above Luis Enrique's side in the forecast.
Arsenal's place near the front also fits what they did last season. They won all eight of their league phase games, which is part of why a second-place projection on 16.33 does not look like an overreach.
The model is not handing out medals, and it is not trying to. What it does show is that Bayern sit first, Arsenal are right behind, and PSG begin this campaign from a more awkward forecast than their status would suggest.
Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 4 outlets. How we work →
