Crystal Palace are one strong home performance from a first European final, with a 3-1 first-leg lead over Shakhtar Donetsk giving them the advantage. Ismaïla Sarr scored Palace's early goal in that first leg, and it was his eighth in this season's Conference League. Palace are also aiming for a fourth successive Selhurst Park clean sheet in the knockout phase.

Why Palace are in control

The first leg in Ukraine left Crystal Palace in a strong position, and the tie now asks Shakhtar Donetsk to chase the game. That suits Palace's current setup, because they have been hard to open up at Selhurst Park in this competition. A fourth straight knockout clean sheet at home would not just protect the lead, it would make the comeback task even heavier for the visitors.

Ismaïla Sarr is the obvious threat. He enters the second leg as the competition's joint-top scorer, and his output has given Palace the sort of edge that changes how opponents defend against them. Sports Mole put it plainly: "Palace are looking to progress through to a European final for the first time in their history." That is the position Palace are in now, with one more decent night enough to take them there.

What Shakhtar need to change

Shakhtar Donetsk need a near-perfect response, and their recent numbers do not make that look comfortable. They have kept only one clean sheet in their last seven matches, which leaves little room for error if Palace score first. Sports Mole also noted that Shakhtar have not defeated English opposition since overcoming Manchester City by a 2-1 scoreline in the 2017-18 Champions League.

That history does not decide this tie on its own, but it does match the wider problem for Arda Turan's side. They are not chasing a fantasy result, they are chasing a comeback that requires sharper defending than they have shown lately. Palace have already done the hard part with the 3-1 lead, and Sarr's form gives them a clear route to finish the job if they stay organised at home.

If Crystal Palace protect Selhurst Park again, they will move into that final for the first time in their history.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 4 outlets. How we work →