Gary Neville thinks Arsenal will be champions on Tuesday night, 19 May. His view is built on the state of the table, where Arsenal lead Manchester City by two points with City having a game in hand, and on a brutal week that could leave City short at the end of it. He also does not think the title race needs to go to the final day.

Why Neville thinks City will slip up

Neville said: “I think City beat Palace, I think Arsenal beat Burnley and I think Arsenal win it, Tuesday night on the 19th of May by City not doing the job at Bournemouth.” He also called it “a hammer blow for City really” because they have Crystal Palace on Wednesday, the FA Cup final against Chelsea on Saturday and then Bournemouth away on Tuesday.

That is the crux of his prediction. City are still in the race, but Neville's point is that the schedule itself is doing a lot of the work for Arsenal. Arsenal are top on 76 points from 35 matches, Manchester City are second on 74 points from 35 matches, and the pressure shifts quickly if City go through that week without cleaning it up.

Neville has also leaned on Arsenal's recent response. Arsenal won 1-0 at West Ham after a late Leandro Trossard goal, and he said those kind of results “build confidence, resilience and momentum.” That is a fair read. Teams do not often need to be at their prettiest to finish the job if they keep finding those late wins.

Why the Champions League view is different

Neville's confidence in the league does not carry over to Europe. He said, “PSG are better than them, you can't get away from that,” and added that it “doesn't quite feel like the right moment for Arsenal to win the Champions League.” Paris Saint Germain are waiting in the final in Budapest on May 30, and Neville sees that as a tougher ask than the title race.

That split is the interesting part of his argument. He is not downplaying Arsenal generally, he is saying the timing is better for the league than for Europe. On the evidence in front of him, that is hard to dismiss.

Arsenal have won four and drawn one in their last five matches, and they are perfect in the Champions League this season with 8 wins from 8. Still, Neville's call is about the different kind of test in front of them. The Premier League looks like the cleaner bet, and if City stumble in that packed week, the title could be done before the final day.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 5 outlets. How we work →