Jamie Carragher has narrowed next season's Premier League race to Arsenal or Manchester City. He still gives City the slight edge, even with Pep Guardiola gone, and he pointed to the gap they closed up last season as part of the case. Carragher also floated Rodri as a possible swing factor.

City still have Carragher's edge

"I think City. The reason I think City is that I think they were still close last year. I know Pep's gone, I get that," Carragher said.

City finished second in the 2025 Premier League with 78 points and a +42 goal difference, while Arsenal won the title with 85 points and a +44 goal difference. That is not a huge gap, and it is the main reason Carragher is not writing City off after Guardiola's exit.

He was even blunter about the title picture when asked who could still win it. "Where we are right now, and we know there's still a month to go transfer-wise, I can only see Arsenal or City."

The cleanest case for Arsenal is obvious enough. They are the defending Premier League champions after ending a 22-year wait, and they finished with a 26-7-5 league record. City were still strong, though, and their 23-9-6 record shows why Carragher thinks the base level is still there.

Rodri and the first fixtures

Carragher also pointed to Rodri when talking about City's outlook. "If you're City, what's the point in selling Rodri? What's the point? Just get another year out of him and let him go for free. He's the best in his position. What's £40m for City?"

That is a very City argument, and it fits the wider point he was making. They do not need a full reset to stay in the race. They need to keep enough of the same spine intact to preserve the level that left them within touching distance last season.

The calendar will bring an early look at both teams. Manchester City's next listed meeting with Arsenal is the Community Shield at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on 16 August. Arsenal open their Premier League season at home to Coventry on 21 August.

Carragher has not made this a wide-open title prediction. He has made it a two-team one, and right now he is still leaning towards City.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 4 outlets. How we work →