Liverpool go into the final day 5th in the Premier League on 59 points with a +10 goal difference after 37 matches. Bournemouth are 6th on 55 points with a +4 goal difference after 36 matches. The Champions League place is still theirs to lose, but the oddest finish in the brief remains technically possible if the right results land at Brentford and Nottingham Forest.

How the playoff scenario works

The scenario from Ewan Ross-Murray at si.com is specific: a 1–0 Liverpool defeat and a 5–0 Bournemouth win could leave both clubs level on points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head record and away goals scored, which would force a one-legged playoff for fifth. That is the version of the race Liverpool need to avoid on Sunday.

The probabilities still lean heavily in their favour. Opta gave Liverpool a 99.65% chance of Champions League qualification ahead of the final day, and that figure sits comfortably alongside the table state. Bournemouth are the only side still able to catch them for the final Champions League slot, but the margin for making the playoff route real is tiny.

The recent form is the awkward part for Liverpool. They collected just one point from their last nine available before the finale, and that slump is why a bizarre mathematical route can still be written down at all. Even so, the basic picture is unchanged: they are still in control of fifth.

Why Bournemouth keep the race open

Bournemouth’s own position is what keeps the puzzle alive. They have already qualified for European football for the first time in their history, and BBC Sport reported that they have told them they hold the necessary Uefa licence to host league-phase matches in either competition. That means the Vitality Stadium is ready to stage European football if their finish requires it.

That matters because the club are still not done with the league campaign. Bournemouth will host a minimum of four European matches at the Vitality Stadium, which has a capacity of around 11,300 and is the smallest stadium in the Premier League by more than 6,000 seats. Their final-day visit to Nottingham Forest keeps the arithmetic alive, even if the playoff route stays remote.

If the late-season wobble at Liverpool has done anything, it has made the last round look stranger than it should. A playoff for fifth is still the outlier, not the expectation, but it is on the board. If Liverpool avoid defeat to Brentford, the whole thing disappears and the league table settles the issue without drama.

FAQ

Can Liverpool still be forced into a fifth-place Champions League playoff?

Yes, but only in a very specific scenario. Liverpool are 5th on 59 points and Bournemouth are 6th on 55. A 1–0 Liverpool defeat and a 5–0 Bournemouth win would leave both clubs level on points, goal difference, goals scored, head-to-head record and away goals scored, which would force a playoff for fifth.

How unlikely is the Liverpool Champions League playoff scenario?

It is extremely unlikely. Liverpool have a +10 goal difference, while Opta gave them a 99.65% chance of Champions League qualification before the final day. Even so, the numbers still leave the bizarre playoff route technically alive if the right final-day results line up.

Why are Bournemouth still in the Champions League discussion?

Bournemouth are 6th on 55 points after 36 matches, so they are the only side still able to catch Liverpool for the final Champions League slot. They also host Nottingham Forest on the final day, which keeps their own part of the race alive.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 8 outlets. How we work →