Liverpool’s next five Premier League games are rated 95.4 for difficulty, the highest figure in Opta’s comparison before the November break. Liverpool are set to face Manchester City, Brentford, Brighton, Arsenal and Crystal Palace in sequence, with the model putting them top of the pile for the period.
The numbers also show why this stretch matters for their league position. Liverpool sit sixth with 9 points from 5 matches, and they are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games. That is a decent base, but a run this awkward will ask a lot more of them than the table would suggest.
Fulham at the other end of the scale
Fulham have the softest rating in the group at 91.1, and their next three league fixtures are Hull, Ipswich and Coventry. They are 19th in the Premier League, so the lighter run arrives at a useful time, even if it does not solve much on its own.
The comparison with Liverpool is stark. One side gets the hardest five-game stretch in the set, the other the easiest, and the gap is visible in both the ratings and the opponents named by the model.
Manchester City and the rest of the pack
Manchester City are top of the Premier League with 15 points from 5 matches, and their perfect start sits alongside a next-five stretch that looks far less punishing than Liverpool’s. Brighton are third with 10 points from 5 games, while Manchester United have only 5 points from 15 and sit 18th.
United’s next five matches are Tottenham, Leeds United, Bournemouth, Chelsea and Aston Villa. Brentford, meanwhile, are 4th with 9 points from 5 games, which puts them in a very different place from United as both clubs head into their own difficult-looking runs.
The broader point is that Opta’s model has split the league neatly before the break. Liverpool get the hardest assignment, Fulham the easiest, and the clubs in between face very different levels of pressure over the next five rounds.
Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 2 outlets. How we work →
