"I don't think anyone would particularly enjoy coming here and playing us, because against anyone, we fancy our chances at home." That is Craig Harrison's pitch as The New Saints prepare for the Champions League qualifier against Sabah FA. The first leg is in Baku on 7 July, with the return at Park Hall seven days later. But Harrison's home-ground conviction collides with an uncomfortable reality: The New Saints have won none of their last five competitive matches and scored only once in that run. They face an opponent that won the Azerbaijan Premier League by nine points, suggesting this is an elite test disguised as a qualifier.
Sabah's quality and the home advantage gamble
Harrison's assessment of his opponent carries weight. "They're obviously a very good team," he said. "They beat Qarabag to the league by nine points and Qarabag beat Benfica in the Champions League last year and only got beaten 3-2 by Newcastle at St James' Park." That pedigree is significant. The Azerbaijani champions are not a regional power stumbling into European football; they are the clear elite of their domestic league. Qarabag, the side they displaced, has demonstrated on the continent that it can compete with established European teams. By extension, Sabah's nine-point margin suggests a level of dominance that extends beyond routine domestic superiority.
Sabah's recent European form does offer some opening. In their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded two wins—including a 4-1 dismantling of Petrocub—but also three losses to Levski Sofia (twice) and Celje. That inconsistency is not nothing for The New Saints. When Sabah are sharp, they can overwhelm opponents, but they have shown vulnerability. The New Saints' belief in Park Hall as a fortress is not misplaced; home ground in European football carries real advantage. But five competitive games without a win is a fragile foundation on which to build that belief. The contradiction between Harrison's confidence and recent results is the central story of this tie.
The goal drought that demands answers
The scoring crisis is where the real concern lies. The New Saints have scored only once in their last five competitive matches. That crisis runs deeper: last season, across four European ties, they managed just a single goal. Visits to continental competition have yielded almost nothing in open play. For a team bidding to progress in European qualification, that is a structural problem.
Harrison has addressed the issue by bringing in attacking talent. "We've brought Brad Young back to the football club," he said. "We all know what Brad's about in his goal-scoring ability." The signal is unmistakable: The New Saints cannot progress without finding the net. One goal across five games is not bad luck or fixture difficulty; it is a vulnerability that an elite opponent will seek to exploit and compound.
The first leg in Baku on 7 July is the opening test. The return to Wales seven days later offers hope for redemption if they lose in Azerbaijan. But without goals in Wales a week later, that hope will evaporate quickly against the team that has just dominated Azerbaijan.
Written by Sam Whitfield with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 1 outlet. How we work →