Pep Guardiola once said, "What I want, my desire, is to have 100 per cent possession." The Premier League has spent the last few seasons moving away from that idea. Last season was the first since before Guardiola came to the league that the average possession figure for winning matches dropped below 50 per cent, and across the first 60 games of this campaign that average has fallen again.

The numbers behind the shift

Last season clubs won 139 matches with less than 50 per cent of the ball and 137 with more. That is a small gap, but it is a real one, and it sits on top of a longer decline in total territorial control. There were 66 matches in 2023-24 in which a team had at least 70 per cent possession. That dropped to 29 in 2024-25 and then to 19 last season.

Guardiola himself has adapted the language. "Today, modern football is the way Bournemouth, Newcastle, Brighton and Liverpool play. Modern football is not positional. You have to rise to the rhythm," he said. That matches what is happening on the pitch, where fast breaks are now at their highest level on record for this season, along with shots from fast breaks and goals from fast breaks since 2006-07.

Low possession is no longer a problem

Teams with 60 per cent possession have won just 35 per cent of their matches this season. Sides with less than 30 per cent of the ball are winning 33 per cent of theirs, a huge change from five seasons ago when that figure was under 10 per cent.

The goalkeeper trend points the same way. The average length of goalkeeper passes from open play is rising again, which fits a league that is happier to play through space quickly than to keep the ball for its own sake. Manchester City still win plenty by controlling games, but they are no longer setting the only workable model.

Promoted sides are making that plain too. Coventry, Ipswich and Hull are averaging the lowest possession of any three promoted teams since Opta records began. Hull are on 32 per cent possession and sitting in the top 10 after beating Manchester United and taking a point off Chelsea. A Hull dressing room source put it simply: "Sergej knows what it takes to win, and having the ball is not that important to him. Anybody that knows the game knows there are different ways to win and he plays completely to the strengths of the players that he's got."

The possession-first era has not disappeared completely, and the best sides can still dominate and win. But the league is clearly giving more room to direct football, quick transitions and teams that are comfortable without the ball. That shift is now showing up in results, not just in the way managers talk.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 1 outlet. How we work →