Tottenham go into the final day two points clear of West Ham, with their superior goal difference meaning a draw at home to Everton should be enough to keep them safe. West Ham are 18th, and their only verified route is a win over Leeds plus an Everton result against Tottenham. That is the shape of the scrap Alan Shearer was talking about, and it leaves Spurs with the cleaner hand.

Why Shearer expects Spurs to edge it

Shearer was blunt about his read on the game. Speaking to givemesport.com, he said: "I'm going to go and say a draw, and I think Spurs will stay up on goal difference." He also noted Danny Murphy's opposite view, saying Murphy had a bad feeling Tottenham could go down.

The disagreement is part of the appeal here, but the basic arithmetic still favours Tottenham. They sit 17th, two points ahead of West Ham, and they do not need to win to control their fate. West Ham cannot say the same. They have to beat Leeds and hope Everton do them a favour, which is a much narrower path.

Why West Ham's form has made the margin so thin

The reason West Ham are chasing rather than controlling this run-in is obvious from the recent form. Their last five league results read LLLWD, and they have conceded 10 goals across those games. Shearer was even harsher after seeing them at Newcastle, saying they were "so bad defensively" and describing the five-at-the-back switch that lasted only 25 minutes when they were 2-0 down.

That is the concern for West Ham on the final day. A team that has been leaking chances and changing shape early in matches is not exactly built for a must-win afternoon. Jarrod Bowen and the rest of the side still have a route, but it is the sort of route that depends on precision in one game and help in another.

Shearer may be leaning toward a Spurs draw, but the evidence behind it is straightforward. Tottenham have the points cushion, the better goal difference and the easier ask. West Ham need a result in their own match and a separate one elsewhere, and that is why the pressure sits more heavily on them heading into Sunday.

FAQ

Will Tottenham stay up if they draw with Everton on the final day?

Yes, a draw at home to Everton should be enough for Tottenham because of their superior goal difference. They lead West Ham by two points and go into the final day in 17th, with safety on their side if they avoid defeat.

What do West Ham need to survive on the final day?

West Ham must beat Leeds and hope Everton beat Tottenham. They are 18th, so anything less than that combination leaves them relying on other results that the brief does not support.

Why is Alan Shearer backing Tottenham to stay up?

Shearer said, 'I'm going to go and say a draw, and I think Spurs will stay up on goal difference.' That view matches the two-point gap and Tottenham's superior goal difference heading into the final day.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 5 outlets. How we work →