Arsenal believe they are in a very good position to move for Vinícius Júnior, but only if he does not renew at Real Madrid. Mario Cortegana said Arsenal have already held a series of talks, and the key condition remains the same: no new contract in Madrid.

Arsenal's position if the contract stays open

Cortegana went further on caughtoffside.com, saying Arsenal's top priority is Vinicius and that there is approval from top to bottom at the club for the operation. He also said the interest is “very real, very concrete, and the situation is still open.”

That is the part worth keeping in view. This is not being framed as a done deal, and it is not being sold as a simple bidding war. The whole chase only stays alive if Real Madrid fail to renew his contract.

The player side of the story is still messy. Sports Mole reported that Vinicius is said to want around £25.5m per year, while Madrid are offering around £17m and his current salary is close to £15.3m. Those numbers explain why the renewal has not been straightforward, and why Arsenal are watching closely.

The asterisk pundits raise

Paul Merson is not buying the chase at face value. He said, “Vinicius Jr is just looking for a new contract at Real Madrid. He's playing Arsenal.”

Merson also argued that Arsenal would be short on the left if they miss out on Vinicius or Bradley Barcola, especially after Leandro Trossard left. That is a fair football point. Arsenal do need a left winger, and Merson's warning is not hard to understand.

But the more interesting part is that the scepticism does not erase the fact Arsenal have already had talks and believe they are in a strong position if the renewal does not happen. Even Merson's criticism leaves the same opening in place: the deal is conditional, not fantasy.

Vinicius is still an elite target too. He has 5 World Cup appearances, 4 goals and a 7.94 rating in that sample, which is exactly the sort of output that makes this more than routine transfer chatter.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 5 outlets. How we work →