"with Chelsea not in Europe, they can mount a challenge." Michael Owen's line has become the cleanest way into the early title debate. Arsenal go into the new season as deserved favourites after winning the league by seven points last season, but the chase is being framed less around a runaway defence and more around whether Chelsea's lighter schedule can turn them into a genuine problem.
Chelsea's no-Europe argument
The case for Chelsea starts with availability more than romance. They will not play European football this season, so the squad avoids the midweek strain that shapes selection, recovery and training time for every club juggling multiple fronts.
That is why Owen's view has found traction. Quoted by football365.com, he said: "I think there can be a few title challengers this season." He also added: "with Chelsea not in Europe, they can mount a challenge."
It is an attractive argument, but it needs grounding in what Chelsea were last season. They finished 10th in the 2025-26 campaign with 52 points. That is a long way from a title race, never mind a title-winning pace, so anybody pitching them as a serious challenger is really arguing for a major jump under a new manager rather than a natural continuation.
There is room for that improvement. A full week between league games can help a new coach settle ideas more quickly, especially at a club that has lacked continuity. Chelsea do not need to win the title for the no-Europe factor to be real either. They just need to cut the gap enough to stay in the conversation deeper into the season than they managed last year.
Not everyone is buying it. Speaking to metro.co.uk, M. Silvestre said: "There will be so much competition from Manchester City and Liverpool this season although at the moment they are the only two teams that are ready to compete for the title, realistically." That is a fair pushback because Chelsea's starting point was so low.
Arsenal's benchmark season
Chelsea's appeal as a dark horse only works because Arsenal are being treated as strong favourites rather than something untouchable. Peter Crouch told metro.co.uk: "I think Arsenal are the best team in the league."
The champions have earned that status. Arsenal won the Premier League by seven points last season, ending the club's 22-year wait for top-flight glory. They did it with 85 points and a +44 goal difference, figures that support the idea that this was the league's best side rather than a team sneaking over the line.
They also handled a heavy schedule well. Arsenal won all eight of their Champions League matches and finished with 24 points, which matters when the Chelsea argument rests so heavily on fewer games. The lighter calendar can help, but Arsenal have already shown they can maintain domestic standards while carrying European football.
That does not kill the debate. A seven-point winning margin is convincing, but it is not the kind of gap that shuts everyone else out before a ball is kicked. The title defence feels solid; the more live question is who gets close enough to test it.
The clubs still in the frame
That is where the wider race comes in. Manchester United recovered to third after Michael Carrick replaced Ruben Amorim in the Old Trafford hot-seat, and Peter Crouch's top-four call included United ahead of Chelsea. Manchester City also finished last season on 78 points, so they remain hard to dismiss from any serious title discussion.
Silvestre's view is stricter than that. He still sees City and Liverpool as the only realistic challengers. Owen's reading is looser and probably closer to where the conversation should sit in August: Arsenal first, then a cluster of clubs trying to prove they belong.
My read is that Chelsea have the most interesting case, but not yet the strongest one. No European football is a genuine edge, and it may be enough to drag them into the race. It does not erase a 10th-place finish with 52 points, and that is why Arsenal remain the team everyone else is trying to catch.
Arsenal face Manchester City in the Community Shield on 16 August before hosting Coventry on 21 August, and those first fixtures will shape how quickly this title debate tightens.
FAQ
Will Chelsea really challenge Arsenal for the Premier League title?
Chelsea are being discussed as possible challengers because they will not play European football this season, which could ease the weekly schedule. Michael Owen said that could help them mount a challenge. The obvious doubt is their baseline: Chelsea finished 10th last season with 52 points, so a title push would require a huge jump.
Why are Arsenal still favourites to defend the title?
Arsenal remain the benchmark because they won the Premier League by seven points last season and ended a 22-year wait for the title. Peter Crouch called them the best team in the league, and their numbers back up that status: 85 points, a +44 goal difference, and eight wins from eight Champions League matches.
What is the big argument against Chelsea in the title race?
The biggest objection is that Chelsea were nowhere near the top last season. They finished 10th with 52 points, so the gap to a title race is not a minor one. Mikael Silvestre went further, saying Manchester City and Liverpool are the only teams ready to compete for the title realistically at the moment.
Are Manchester City and Liverpool still seen as bigger threats than Chelsea?
Yes, in some views they are. Silvestre said Manchester City and Liverpool are the only two teams currently ready to compete for the title. The article's balance is that Chelsea's lighter schedule makes them worth discussing, but City and Liverpool still look like the safer names to place in the main chase behind Arsenal.
Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 3 outlets. How we work →
