The Ballon d'Or winner will be announced in London on 26 October, and the BBC's expert panel does not have a clean favourite. Bookmakers have Lamine Yamal and Harry Kane very close together at the top, with Kane's 73 goals in 65 games, as Andros Townsend put it, sitting alongside Yamal's trophy-led case.

Kane's scoring case

Alan Shearer and Danny Murphy both backed Kane, and Shearer said: "The winner of the Ballon d'Or should be Harry Kane. His numbers for the last 12 to 18 months have been absolutely sensational for Bayern and for England. For that reason, he should get it."

Townsend went further, saying Kane scored 73 goals in 65 games and led Bayern Munich to the league and cup double. The quoted totals do the heavy lifting here, but Kane's season rows still show why he is in the debate. He has 16 goals across the listed competitions and 23 appearances, with 4 Bundesliga goals, 5 Bundesliga assists, 4 Champions League goals and 2 Champions League assists.

That is a lot for a player who is being judged not just on finishing, but on whether he has done enough across club football to outweigh the trophy narrative around Yamal.

Yamal's trophy-led case

Rory Smith said it will probably go to Yamal because it generally goes to someone who has won the biggest trophy, and this is the World Cup. Guillem Balague was even more direct about where he thinks the vote goes, saying there is "only one Spaniard who deserves it" and that Yamal has "individual performances, collective trophies, and has that aura."

Yamal's own numbers back up the case even before the trophies come in. He has 8 La Liga goals and 6 assists this season, plus an 8.09 rating in the league. The argument for him is not built on goals alone, though. It is built on profile, a major international trophy and the sense that the Ballon d'Or often follows the player everyone already talks about.

Kylian Mbappé was mentioned by Balague as one of the names he thinks has fallen away, but the real split is between Kane's output and Yamal's narrative. That is why this race still looks open on the morning of the award.

Written by Sam Whitfield with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 2 outlets. How we work →