"It is a match that really counts, but I do not consider it a final. And Lukaku is available," Mark van Bommel told Sky Sport Italia, in comments translated from Italian. That feels about right for Belgium vs Italy. Belgium are one point behind Italy with 90 minutes left in the group, so the arithmetic is brutally simple: Italy go through with a win or a draw, Belgium must win to reach the Nations League quarter-finals.

The qualification pressure in Brussels

Roberto Mancini, quoted by football-italia.net, leaned into the stakes rather than dodging them: "Is it worth only three points, or more? Being here and fighting for qualification in the Nations League is a source of pride. We’re here and we’re going for it. We can win, even though we know it won’t be easy, because Belgium are a great national team."

That is the sensible read of the night. It is not a final in the formal sense, but both coaches are speaking like men who know one mistake can decide the group.

The table explains why. Italy lead Group A1 on 10 points and Belgium are on 9. Some of the reporting around Belgium's exact placing has not been fully consistent, but the key part is clear enough: a draw is enough for Italy, while Belgium need all three points.

Van Bommel said the tactical problem is bigger than the table. Quoted in Italian by Sky Sport Italia, he said: "I believe that Italy has changed compared to the first leg. It has done so in its playing ideas and also in some starters. They have excellent quality, young players. Obviously they want to win, but they can also play for a draw. For us it is clear that we have to win and after all we want to win everywhere, it does not matter whether it is a match against Italy, a qualifying match or another kind of match."

That last part is where Belgium's pressure differs from Italy's. Mancini can set his side up with qualification in mind, even if he will never say it that plainly. Belgium do not have that luxury.

Italy's improvement and Belgium's attacking boost

The first-leg loss in Rome still hangs over this game, but both benches are talking about a different Italian side now. Mancini, quoted in Italian by Sky Sport Italia, said: "Actually I was confident even after that match. I was left happy with the reaction in the second half. They have similar characteristics to France, with fast players and very good technically."

Van Bommel sees the same shift. Quoted in Italian by TuttoMercatoWeb, he said: "This is a different Italy compared with the first match. Against Türkiye they showed they know how to play excellent football. Also against France. It certainly will not be an easy match. Their striker Francesco Pio Esposito is very dangerous. He is growing incredibly well"

Esposito's output backs that up. He has 4 Nations League goals, which is enough to make him the obvious threat Belgium have to manage. Italy have also had Davide Frattesi involved throughout the competition, with 5 appearances and 2 goals, though the wider team news remains a concern. Nicolò Cambiaghi is reported out with an ankle problem, while Riccardo Calafiori is only a doubt.

Belgium, at least, have more encouraging news up front. Van Bommel told TuttoMercatoWeb, in comments translated from Italian: "He trained yesterday and today in Tubeke, taking part in all activities. He is definitely available. Everyone is fit, Roméo Lavia is back too. Fortunately he was not suspended in Smirne"

That does not mean Romelu Lukaku arrives at peak rhythm. He has made 3 Nations League appearances this season and scored 1 goal. Still, availability matters in a game like this, especially with Van Bommel also pointing to Charles De Ketelaere as another route to goal. De Ketelaere has 1 goal and 2 assists in the competition, and van Bommel called him "a modern striker" who can drop short or attack space.

De Ketelaere's own message was even simpler. Quoted in Italian by Sky Sport Italia, he said: "We know what we have to do, we need to win. For us only victory matters and we will have to play with the right mentality"

Sunday's terms are already set

Belgium's recent Nations League run has swung between wins and losses, which fits the sense of a team still looking for control at the biggest moments. Italy's five-match return in the competition is steadier, with 10 points from that spell and top spot heading into Brussels.

That does not guarantee anything on Sunday, but it does explain why Italy can approach the game with a little more patience. Belgium have to force it at some stage. Italy do not.

Brussels hosts the decider on 15 November, with Italy protecting a one-point lead and Belgium chasing the only result that keeps them alive.

FAQ

Will Italy qualify from the Nations League group with a draw against Belgium?

Yes. Italy go into the Brussels match on 10 points and can secure qualification with either a win or a draw. Belgium are one point behind on 9, so only a victory sends them through to the Nations League quarter-finals.

Why are Belgium treating the Italy match like a knockout game?

Because Belgium have no margin for error. Mark van Bommel said he does not see it as a final, but the scenario is simple: Belgium must win. Charles De Ketelaere repeated the same message, saying only victory matters.

Is Romelu Lukaku fit to play against Italy?

Van Bommel said Lukaku is available after training on consecutive days in Tubeke. Belgium's coach also stressed that everyone is fit and that Roméo Lavia is back. The reporting supports availability, not a claim that Lukaku is fully match-sharp.

Why are Belgium expecting a tougher Italy side than in the first meeting?

Both coaches have said Italy have changed since the first leg. Van Bommel pointed to different playing ideas and some different starters, while Mancini said he was encouraged even after that earlier defeat. Belgium are also wary of Francesco Pio Esposito, who has 4 Nations League goals.

Written by Sam Whitfield with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 3 outlets. How we work →