William Saliba is set for an extended spell out after a back injury suffered at the World Cup with France, and that is a bad moment for Arsenal to be dealing with. Since Saliba's debut in 2022, Arsenal have won 68.7% of their Premier League matches when he has been in the team, across 131 games. When he has been sidelined, that win rate drops to 47.6% in 21 games.
Arsenal's defensive problem
The club's own wording matters here. They have said Saliba is out for an "extended period", which makes this more than a short-term nuisance. For a side carrying title favourite expectations, the gap between those two win rates is hard to ignore. Arsenal's defensive baseline looks noticeably stronger with Saliba in it, and this preview centres on what happens when that base is removed for a while.
Arsenal finished last season with 85 league points and an 8/8 Champions League run, so the attack and the overall profile were already good enough to think about trophies. The concern is not whether they are a strong side. It is whether they can absorb a long absence from a defender who has been central to their Premier League record since 2022.
The wider race is opening up
BBC Sport's preview put the broader picture bluntly: "Three of the Premier League's "big six" have new managers, the champions have a key injury issue and Tottenham and Chelsea are breaking transfer records - and that might mean a very open title race."
That is the point Arsenal have to live with now. Chelsea played 59 matches in all competitions last season, while Tottenham had 27 different players sidelined at some point and also broke their transfer record twice in two days, with Mateus Fernandes for £85m and then Sandro Tonali for £100m. Manchester City are also starting the season without Pep Guardiola, with Enzo Maresca taking over, so the usual title picture already had enough moving parts without Arsenal losing Saliba for an extended spell.
There is a real case for saying the title race looks more open than it did a month ago. Arsenal's own data is the sharpest reason why. A team that wins 68.7% of its league matches with Saliba and 47.6% without him is carrying a meaningful injury risk, not a small one.
The next question is whether Arsenal can keep pace through the opening weeks while he is out. Their title case is still alive, but the first version of it now has a clear flaw, and the season begins with that flaw already exposed.
Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 1 outlet. How we work →
