Liverpool have scored in each of their last nine competitive matches, and that run gives their Champions League opener a very obvious starting point. Atletico Madrid arrive after conceding six second-half goals across their last three games, including a 3-0 away defeat at Athletic Bilbao on Saturday. The contrast is hard to ignore, even before you get to the history between these sides.

Liverpool's attacking edge

Liverpool's recent scoring run has not been built on one type of game. Their last three Premier League matches produced back-to-back 2-2 draws with Newcastle and Nottingham Forest, then a 2-0 away win at Ipswich Town. That is not a side relying on one burst or one fixture pattern, it is a team finding chances regularly enough to keep pressure on from the first whistle.

There is also some European support for that view. Liverpool kept four clean sheets in their last five League Phase games against Spanish opposition, which fits the idea that they can control this kind of matchup at both ends of the pitch. Virgil van Dijk also comes in on a 7.77 rating against Ipswich, a decent marker of where he is heading into a more demanding test.

Atletico's defensive problems

Diego Simeone called the defeat at Athletic Bilbao “a real wake-up call”, and the numbers around it are not flattering. Atletico have conceded six second-half goals in their last three matches, which points to a side losing control after the break rather than just suffering one off night.

Their wider problem against English clubs does not help either. Atletico are still looking for their first Champions League group stage or League Phase win over an English team after 10 meetings, with no wins, four draws and six defeats. Alexander Isak has only one goal in 13 Champions League games in his career so far, so Liverpool cannot rely on one forward to carry everything, but the overall balance still favours them.

Last season's 4-0 aggregate defeat to Paris Saint-Germain showed Liverpool can be exposed by elite opposition, but Anfield usually gives them a different edge. If they keep the tempo high and force Atletico to defend deep for long spells, the visitors' recent second-half lapses are the part of this tie that looks most vulnerable. The opener is set for Anfield, and Liverpool's scoring streak gives them the cleaner route into it.

Written by Jack Mercer with AI-assisted research, cross-checked against 1 outlet. How we work →